Preference Cloud Theory, a two-step model of decision making under risk

Dr Oben BayrakCongratulations to CERE Dr Oben Bayrak who successfully defended his thesis Preference Cloud Theory: Modelling Imprecise Preferences and a New Theory for Decision under Risk on May 13th, 2016. The thesis presents the Preference Cloud Theory, a two-step model of decision making under risk. The theory provides an explanation for some empirically observed anomalies of the Expected Utility Theory, such as Allais Paradox, valuation gaps and preference reversals. Preference imprecision that arises because of individuals’ vague understanding of numerical probabilities is a corner stone in the theory. This concept is combined with the use of the so called Alpha model to develop a theory that explains various anomalies discovered in the experimental economics literature that standard models cannot explain.

Full access to Oben’s thesis.

”Closing reactors by 2020 will cost 200 billions”

An energy system which is cost-effective, has a secure delivery and low environmental impact should be desirable. Something of a challenge when the electricity production system goes from large power plants where production can be planned to smaller power plants with intermittent power. This from representatives of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA) project: Vägval el (The Electricity Crossroads) in SvD May 31st 2016. One of the representatives is CERE’s Runar Brännlund.

Read the full article (in Swedish only)

The Future Electricity market – how do we get there?

In an article in Dagens indstri May 23rd 2016, a report, for which CERE’s Runar Brännlund has been responsible, is mentioned.

The report points to a number of important issues that will be crucial while discussing future electric systems.

Read the report ”Framtidens elmarknad – En delrapport” on* (only in Swedish)
Forskarlarm: Notan dyrare än befarat”, Dagens industri May 23rd 2016 (only in Swedish)

*Kungliga Ingenjörsvetenskapsakademin (IVA)

The value of preserving crop diversity?

Nik TyackThe popular Stated Preference Methods course started on May 9th, 2016. We sat down with one of the students, who will look into what what value the Czech public places on preserving crop diversity.

Nicholas Tyack is a Master’s student at the Institute of Economic Studies of Charles University in Prague. He will be using stated preference techniques in his Master’s thesis, and is conducting research with the generous financial support of the Grant Agency of Charles University (GAUK). He is working with the Czech gene bank, a publically supported programme to conserve crop diversity. “In my stated preference work I want to look at the value the Czech public places on the conservation of different classes of crop diversity. And if I have a positive result, then that might provide some support for expanding the genebank’s program and funding, as well as expanding the literature on the the valuation of crop diversity.”

Summer ”mountains of electricity”

The market adjusts to what is most profitable and with large-scale nuclear and hydro power being heavily taxed this could lead to a tangible risk of summer ”mountains of electricity”, Bengt Kriström explains in Second Opinion, May 10th.

Congratulations to Philip Kofi Adom, SLU’s nominee to the Global Swede Ceremony!

Philip Kofi AdomThe aim of the ceremony is to draw attention to foreign students and their significance as Swedish ambassadors. To encourage and engage these students to, upon completing their studies, maintain their relationship to Sweden and their University.

Philip was nominated by SLU with the following text: Philip Kofi Adom from Ghana finished his PhD thesis in record time, 1.5 years. Philip’s research combine methods and study areas in an innovative way, focusing on how to secure energy systems while balancing environmental quality and economic development. Contrary to common belief, Philip’s research show that goals of economic development and environmental quality are not mutually exclusive, and his findings about how important regulatory framework, institutions and infrastructure are to avoid countries being caught in an energy inefficient trap might affect political development worldwide. With his impressive focus, reflectiveness and dedicated work, Philip is a role model for all students, and an outstanding representative for SLU and Sweden.

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